By Asiimwe Angel
Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan are entering a new phase of deterioration, as a series of recent incidents reignite tensions stemming from the December 25, 2024, downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane—an event that remains unresolved and continues to inflame bilateral disputes.
On July 1, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) issued a formal protest against what it described as “unfriendly actions” by Azerbaijan. The MFA accused Baku of deliberately working to unravel the historically complex but strategically significant relationship between the two nations. Russian officials claim that Azerbaijan’s recent diplomatic and media behavior constitutes a targeted campaign designed to erode trust and stoke tensions.
The primary flashpoint in this ongoing deterioration is the recent detention of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, Russia. Baku has expressed outrage over the arrests, alleging ethnic profiling and mistreatment. However, the Russian MFA responded by insisting the detentions were lawful and asserting that Azerbaijan’s criticisms amount to interference in Russia’s internal affairs.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov escalated the rhetoric, accusing Azerbaijan of taking steps “not in line with the spirit and character” of Russian-Azerbaijani relations. These remarks reflect growing frustration within Moscow over Baku’s increasingly vocal opposition to Russian policies, particularly in the context of the airline incident.
Meanwhile, regional dynamics are shifting. On July 1, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a phone call with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The two leaders reportedly discussed the detentions in Yekaterinburg and broader regional security issues, suggesting a potential alignment of interests between Kyiv and Baku as both navigate increasingly strained relations with Moscow.
Russian nationalist and military bloggers have also weighed in, accusing Azerbaijan of using the ethnic detentions as a pretext to provoke public anger and erode pro-Russian sentiment among its population. These voices argue that Azerbaijani authorities and media are exaggerating the Yekaterinburg episode to consolidate domestic unity around an anti-Russian narrative.
Tensions first escalated in late December 2024 when a passenger aircraft operated by Azerbaijan Airlines was shot down—likely by Russian air defenses—before crashing in Kazakhstan. Russia’s refusal to accept full responsibility for the incident has left relations deeply strained, and recent events suggest the diplomatic rupture is only widening.
With no resolution in sight, the Russia-Azerbaijan relationship appears to be entering its most volatile period in decades.
