Strengthening strategic partnerships in a multipolar world

By Dr. Tim Frazier

Its historical and strategic relations distinguish the United States with the Gulf States in general and the Emirates and Saudi Arabia in particular, both politically and economically. Recently, there has been increased talk about the desire of Abu Dhabi and Riyadh to bring about a qualitative shift in bilateral relations with Washington. This shift is seeking to transfer the existing military and security cooperation between them from the formula currently in effect to a formula of an official nature documented by a military security agreement in their capacity as strategic allies of the United States. This Emirati-Saudi endeavor comes in the context of their desire to strengthen Gulf security.

In order to provide a more consistent security position across US political administrations, which understandably are sometimes driven by its interests at the expense of those of its allies, the UAE is taking a political path that has made it a more pivotal player in many global issues. This is opening up its relations with those whom Washington sometimes classifies as political and economic opponents but yet there is a strong desire and need for the United States to maintain their influential role in the Gulf.

In this context, the two visits of Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, President of the UAE, to Moscow during the year 2022 raised more than a question mark for many US officials. Sheikh Mohammed received a remarkable warm reception from Russian President Vladimir Putin, with the visit done in the context of enhancing the diversification of cooperation. Further, The UAE military announced last August that Emirati-Chinese air exercises were the first of their kind and constituted a noticeable shift in Emirati-Chinese cooperation. It is also worth noting that the UAE announced at the end of May 2023 its withdrawal from a maritime security alliance led by the United States in the Middle East, which is an alliance consisting of 34 countries, and works to ensure security and combat terrorism and piracy in the Red Sea and Gulf regions.

The UAE’s success in strengthening its relations with Russia, China, and India indicates that the world is moving towards multi-polarity which lessons the influence of single nations like the United States. The diplomatic advisor to Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Anwar Gargash, indicated this when he said: “What we see in the international system is not necessarily a multipolar world.” “But we are witnessing a more flexible world where things change.” The UAE has drawn up the features of a policy that the other Gulf states world should adopt by diversifying their economies away from dependence on oil and expanding their influence abroad, and this is what the UAE Minister of Cabinet Affairs, Mohammed Al-Gergawi, previously confirmed, saying. “They know our importance, and they know our impact on the world.”

The recent increase in talk about the UAE and Saudi Arabia seeking to sign a security agreement that shows the extent of Washington’s commitment to their security and the security of the Gulf was accompanied by American talk about difficulties that President Biden’s administration may face in achieving the Emirati-Saudi desire. This difficulty may persist despite the validity of the Emirati-Saudi desire, but sources are keeping pace in Washington, DC and are hopeful that progress can be made. It may be difficult for the United States to adhere to a comprehensive security agreement, especially since it requires legislative approval in Congress, which may be time intensive. Moreover, more than one scenario was proposed for that agreement, such as if it were a treaty that recognized the security of the Gulf as part of the national interest of the United States, thus declaring the Gulf states as major allies of the United States. Outside NATO, this could progress to a formal security commitment from Washington, similar to what was signed with Japan and South Korea.

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