In the lead-up to Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi’s US visit last month, many Iraqi politicians called for talks on a timetable for reducing the US advisory forces, effectively returning Iraqi-American relations to a stage before the fall of Mosul in 2014. They also called on the Iraqi leader to work on transferring Iraqi-American relations from a military framework to a more comprehensive political-economic arrangement.
This important visit was accompanied by an increase in political voices opposing the US military presence in Iraq, an exchange of attacks between the Iraqi militias loyal to Iran and the US forces, and an increasingly fragile security situation.
Al-Kadhimi visited Washington hoping to discuss the future of US-Iraq relations and to resolve the controversy over the presence of US forces in the country in order to provide him with political opportunities before the early parliamentary elections, scheduled for next October.
Following the summit, Iraq appears to be putting more pressure on the pro-Iran Shiite militias. The talks proved that the militias’ opposition to even an advisory role for US troops is futile. The summit established the framework for deterrence to prevent anti-American militias from striking US targets inside Iraq.
It could be said that the results of the Iraqi-US dialogue were based on Washington’s security goals in the Middle East, which include preventing Iraq from becoming a haven for extremists, eliminating terrorist hotspots and ensuring the continued defeat of Daesh.
“The Biden-Al-Kadhimi summit elevated US-Iraqi relations into a genuine strategic partnership” – Maria Maalouf
The US also wants to stop any domination of Iraq by Iran and other hostile countries. Iraq remains the sixth-largest oil producer in the world, the second-largest exporter in OPEC, and a key part of the global energy market. Any threat to its production or export capability would severely threaten the world economy.
Al-Kadhimi’s view is that the strategic dialogue unified the political position on Iraqi sovereignty — a historic day for Iraq and an important achievement in Iraqi-US relations.
The Biden-Al-Kadhimi summit elevated US-Iraqi relations into a genuine strategic partnership. It boosted the political fortunes of the Iraqi prime minister and will allow him to have a major influence on events. He was able to demonstrate that his government is a strategic asset to Washington.
Iraqi militias loyal to Iran have not announced their position on the US withdrawal and may wait for instructions from Tehran, their sponsor. However, many observers inside Iraq have been quick to praise Al-Kadhimi for the apparent success of the summit.
Nevertheless, the dialogue session failed to discuss the development of a strategy that accurately defines what Iraq needs from the US. Therefore, any judgment regarding the success or failure of the summit is premature, and we should wait to see actual results on the ground. Until this is clear, what was achieved can best be described as a redeployment to facilitate the Iraqi elections in October and to strengthen Democrats’ hopes in the US midterm elections in 2022.
Ultimately, Iraq should begin planning a road map outlining its strategic options after the US military withdrawal. This can be achieved by creating a national consensus on the country’s foreign and defense policies. It should retain the parliamentary resolution to pull all US forces out of Iraq as “non-binding.” It must also be sufficiently flexible to deal with any new development such as war between Israel and Hezbollah or the signing of a nuclear deal between the US and Iran. This should serve Iraq’s national interests well.
- Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher and writer. She holds an MA in Political Sociology from the University of Lyon. Twitter: @bilarakib
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