Assad’s Spiral: Is the Syrian President’s Grip Looping Towards Its End?

By Michael Arizanti

Bashar al-Assad, once seen as an unshakeable figure in Syria, now finds himself in a spiraling doom loop of political and military weakness. Here’s why he’s on the brink:

1. Allies Distracted, Assad Exposed

Russia’s Focus Shifts: With the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia’s military and economic support for Assad has significantly waned. Their attention and resources are elsewhere, leaving Assad more vulnerable.
Iran’s Overstretched Reach: Facing domestic issues and multiple regional conflicts, Iran can’t fully back Assad as before. Hezbollah, a key ally, is also stretched thin, reducing their presence in Syria.

This withdrawal of support is critical at a time when Assad needs it the most.

2. Opposition’s Surge:

With Assad’s allies less involved, opposition forces are gaining ground. These groups are not just surviving; they’re thriving, pushing harder against government-held territories.
Assad’s own resolve seems shaken. His decisions appear more erratic, potentially signaling to his inner circle that the regime’s days might be numbered.

3. A Demoralized Military:

The Syrian Arab Army is crumbling. Soldiers are abandoning posts due to lack of pay, supplies, and clear leadership. This morale drop not only weakens their defense but might encourage more defections.

4. Assad’s Questionable Future:

Once viewed as an indispensable ally, Assad’s value to Russia and Iran is now questionable. Without a strong military or a cohesive political strategy, his allies might soon see him as more of a liability than an asset.

What’s Next for Assad?

Assad is caught in a cycle where weakened support leads to more aggressive opposition, which in turn exacerbates military desertions and internal regime doubts. Here are the possible scenarios:

Allies Pull Out: If Russia or Iran decide Assad is unsalvageable, they might cut losses, potentially leading to his swift downfall.

Bashar al-Assad might be remembered as a leader who, despite his iron grip, was ultimately undone by his reliance on foreign powers. His current trajectory suggests a narrative all too familiar in modern history: the fall from power, not by coup or assassination, but by the slow unraveling of support from those he depended on most.

For those watching closely, Assad’s fate could be a lesson on the perils of power built on foreign sand!

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