Iran has an Islamist regime, but the North Korean model is more

By Jay Solomon

The Iran nuclear deal, their nuclear program, and relief sanctions and sort of, in trying to promote investment, in some way is to constrain their terrorism and curb their support for their militias that have turned Lebanon, Yemen, and parts of Iraq into failed states or helped to create failed states? Even if they were in pretty bad shape. To begin, I think that proved to be very difficult. Under the Obama administration, they either kept saying they’ll lift some sanctions but we’ll keep others. And there are probably two or three sanctions that matter. There are the sanctions on oil, the sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran, and then the sanctioning of some big sizeable private government banks.

Regarding the other sanctions, the Iranians can live with them, and they don’t care much if the IRGC is designated as long as they can sanction the oil. It’s challenging to constrain Iran if you reach an agreement to lift the oil sanctions because that is the blood, the financial lifeline of that regime. And there’s been a bit of a misunderstanding, too. I don’t believe the Supreme Leader of Iran wants massive foreign investment. He believes he can be undermined by Western capital and Western companies. I think he wants enough money from oil to keep the regime going but not so much foreign money, certainly from the west. Maybe he’s okay with more money from China and Russia, but I think he sees Western capitalism Western money as a threat and would like to constrain that.

The North Korean regime is a radical revolutionary regime, like Iran, in some ways. Iran has an Islamist regime, but the North Korean model is more. They worship the Qin family, and they’re nominally communist or Marxist. But, there has been a real convergence since probably the 60s between North Korea and many of the states; indeed, in the middle east, where the US and Iran have conflicted with the North Koreans, were probably the first in a lot of ways to provide arms to the Islamic Republic of Iran after the Revolution, when the war with Iraq was going the US had an arms embargo on Iran. The North Koreans stepped up and started providing weapons to Iran, and the North Koreans essentially built a nuclear reactor for the Syrians that the Israelis destroyed in 2008. But that was very much seen as virtually a bomb-making facility, and it would produce plutonium using nuclear weapons. And most of the middle missile systems in the Middle East, whether it was the Egyptians, the Iranians, or the Syrians, came from North Korea in one shape or form.

The US government is pretty outspoken about Iranian drones being transferred for use by the Russian military in Ukraine these years. The Iranians denied it, but there have been photos in recent weeks we’ve been days where you could see Farsi language on drones that were shot down by the Ukrainian review Ukrainian military. The Ukraine war has been interesting because there was some hope in the Biden administration that Russia’s invasion might clarify the global order. Countries like China and Russia might stay out of the conflict or diplomatically isolate Russia. In reality, it’s been the complete opposite. The Russians have said they’ve been buying arms from North Korea for use in Ukraine. I mentioned the drones used by the Russian military in Ukraine. And the Chinese haven’t been real weapons transfers. They had provided Russia with humanitarian food and diplomatic support in the UN and other cases. The Ukraine war has clarified that this bloc of nations, whether it’s the Russians, the Chinese, the Syrians, the Iranians, or the North Koreans, they do work in a lot of ways. And that will probably be more of a defining block going forward.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jay Solomon is an adjunct fellow at The Washington Institute. A veteran journalist whose career has included postings in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. He tweets as @jaysolomon

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