By Prof Bill Micheal
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 marked a turning point for Syria, ushering in an interim government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa. Despite his jihadist past, al-Sharaa’s early tenure has shown pragmatic steps toward stability, minority inclusion, and economic rebuilding. For Israel and the United States, his leadership presents a complex but promising opportunity to reshape regional dynamics, counter Iranian influence, and potentially integrate Syria into broader Middle Eastern peace frameworks like the Abraham Accords. This article explores why al-Sharaa’s success could benefit both nations and the steps needed to seize this moment.
Since assuming power, al-Sharaa has taken notable steps to distance his government from its jihadist roots. His administration has prioritized power-sharing, minority rights, and economic development, earning cautious international approval. In June 2025, the United States lifted sanctions on Syria following al-Sharaa’s meeting with President Donald Trump in Saudi Arabia, signaling a strategic pivot toward supporting a stable Syria. The executive order, signed on June 30, emphasized a “stable, unified, and at peace” Syria, aligning with US interests in regional stability.
Al-Sharaa’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, led by Director General Rafael Grossi, has alleviated concerns about nuclear ambitions. Additionally, his government has taken concrete actions against regional threats, including expelling Hamas and Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine factions, arresting Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders, and disrupting Iran-Hezbollah smuggling networks. These moves suggest a willingness to prioritize governance over ideological militancy, offering a potential opening for engagement.
Israel’s response to Syria’s transition has been shaped by security concerns heightened since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks. Jerusalem remains wary of al-Sharaa’s jihadist background, with Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar labeling the new government as “jihadists in suits.” Israel’s military has capitalized on Syria’s instability, seizing the 1974 ceasefire buffer zone, including parts of Mount Hermon, and conducting airstrikes on former Assad-era military sites to prevent hostile militia activity. Incidents like the March 2025 clashes in Latakia involving Alawites and Sunni militias, and the May violence against the Druze community, which left over 40 dead, have deepened Israel’s skepticism about al-Sharaa’s ability to maintain centralized control. A June rocket attack from Tasil in southern Syria, attributed to rogue Palestinian or jihadist groups, prompted a restrained Israeli artillery response, signaling a desire to avoid escalation while maintaining deterrence.
Despite these concerns, al-Sharaa’s success aligns with Israel’s strategic interests. A stable Syria under a centralized government could prevent the emergence of a security vacuum that risks empowering Iran-backed militias or resurgent terrorist groups like ISIS or al-Qaeda. Israel’s focus on protecting minorities, particularly the Druze and Kurds, reflects a broader strategy to counter Islamist forces. However, a sectarian approach risks entangling Israel in Syria’s internal conflicts, potentially undermining al-Sharaa’s efforts to unify the country.
Several scenarios could reshape the regional balance, each carrying implications for Israel and the US:
-Fragmented Syria: A weak central government could enable Iran to regain influence through proxy militias, reviving Syria as an arms corridor to Hezbollah. This would also risk the resurgence of ISIS or al-Qaeda, threatening regional stability.
-Turkish Expansion: Turkey’s growing influence, including negotiations for a defense agreement with Damascus, raises concerns in Jerusalem. Israeli airstrikes on Syrian airbases like T4 and Palmyra aim to deter Turkish military deployment, which could escalate tensions along a potential new border. -Military Reintegration: Al-Sharaa’s plan to integrate former rebels into a unified Syrian army has sparked Israeli fears of institutionalized radicalism. However, a cohesive military under Damascus’ control could stabilize the country, reducing the risk of rogue militias.
Despite these challenges, al-Sharaa’s government has shown restraint in its rhetoric and actions toward Israel. During the recent Israel-Iran conflict, Syrian sources indicated a willingness to tolerate Israeli defensive actions in Syrian airspace, hinting at nascent security coordination. Reports of potential Syrian inclusion in the Abraham Accords, though tied to the contentious 2002 Arab Peace Initiative and the Golan Heights dispute, further underscore the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough.
For Israel and the US, supporting al-Sharaa’s “New Syrian National Project” offers strategic benefits. The US, having lifted sanctions, should encourage moderate forces, including its Kurdish allies, to join Damascus in a power-sharing framework. This would counter Turkish and Iranian influence while fostering stability. Washington could also leverage Gulf allies to provide economic support, aligning with al-Sharaa’s vision of rebuilding Syria, as articulated during his May 2025 Aleppo speech, where he declared a “battle of construction.” Israel should shift from a sectarian focus to broader engagement with Damascus. By leveraging its networks in Syria, Israel could support a government committed to minority protection while signaling openness to improved relations. A security dialogue mechanism, holding al-Sharaa accountable for preventing attacks from Syrian soil without demanding full territorial control, could pave the way for de-escalation and eventual Israeli withdrawal from seized areas.
Economically, Israel’s expertise in water and agricultural technology could bolster Syria’s recovery, creating mutual benefits through trade and regional integration, potentially via the India-Middle East corridor. Such cooperation could lay the groundwork for Syria’s inclusion in the Abraham Accords, a potential win for the Trump administration’s regional strategy.
Ahmed al-Sharaa’s leadership, while fraught with challenges, offers Israel and the US a rare opportunity to support a stable, inclusive Syria. By prioritizing engagement over confrontation, both nations can counter Iranian and Turkish influence, stabilize the region, and potentially achieve a historic diplomatic breakthrough. The success of al-Sharaa’s Syria could redefine Middle Eastern alliances, turning a war-torn nation into a partner for peace.
