by Jonathan Schanzer
Jordan has been suffering from economic challenges for quite some time; leading up to the COVID crisis, things were insignificant. They grew quite a bit worse during the COVID crisis. Although that was something we saw worldwide, the economy began to bounce back over the last year or so. But the amount of debt, relative to GDP, has been unsustainable for Jordan.
New reports come from Jordan that water is running out in the kingdom; overall, they continue to go hat in hand with the Emiratis, the Saudis, and others looking for additional assistance. They just signed an MOU with the United States to provide Jordan with quite a bit of money over seven years. But none of it is enough to sustain Jordan on its current trajectory. And so now that fuel prices are growing, truckers are having a more challenging time making a living, and products are having a harder time going to market. One can understand why Jordanians, specifically those outside of Oman, are having a difficult time here. The protests are not welcome, given that Jordan is already in something of a weakened state.
Indeed, there are Islamist elements within Jordan that would like unrest. There are allies of Iran that would like to see turmoil. Iranian-backed actors putting Captagon, for example, into the Jordanian economy and getting Jordanians hooked on this drug. We continue to hear about the Kings concerns about Iranian naval activity to the south, and we hear about the house-to-shabby activity on Jordan’s northern border. All of these things are of genuine concern.
Certainly, some actors would like to destabilize the country. The current political trajectory has been sustainable; we’ve seen every year there’s another prime minister is sacked, a new one comes, and a new government is formed. It appears to be window dressing for a more long-term political challenge. I don’t think that it strikes at the heart of the legitimacy of the regime. The king is still revered, and the monarchy is still highly respected within the country. But these are not going to be easy challenges moving forward.
Again, the further you get out from Amman, the greater the challenges are, the more disconnected they are from the seat of power, and the greater the economic difficulties; often, we’re going to see Amman appears to be relatively stable economically, it’s the rest of the country. And this is precisely what we’re seeing right now many kinds of challenges.
Primarily Iran and then the Iranian axis are destabilizing Jordan. The regime in Iran is looking to destabilize the entire region. This is their broader strategy. And we see this belt that stretches from western Iran through Iraq, into Syria into Lebanon.
The other one, of course, is the Muslim Brotherhood. Jordan has long been seen as an ally of the West and a pocket of stability. Where were the Sunni radicals who would like to bring it down now within the regime within Jordan itself, the one we know as the Islamic action front and some of its splinter groups? They consider themselves the loyal opposition, and they’ve not actively sought to bring down the regime. But that will not stop it from engaging in protests that will not stop it from some of the domestic unrest.
Again, we have to watch the sightings of Jordan very closely. This is not a positive development, although it’d be a stretch to say that this is a direct threat to the regime at this moment.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jonathan Schanzer is an American author and senior vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He oversees the work of the organization’s experts and scholars. You can follow him on Twitter @JSChanzer