Erfan Fard
In an interconnected world, the United States faces multifaceted threats from state actors such as Iran, China, and Russia. These adversaries employ a range of tactics, from targeted attacks against government officials to transnational repression activities on American soil. Understanding the intricacies of these operations is crucial for safeguarding national security and protecting the rights of individuals residing in the United States.
Iran maintains its intent to plot attacks against current and former US government officials in retaliation for the 2020 death of IRGC’s Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF) Commander and designated foreign terrorist Qassem Soleimani. In August 2022, the DOJ indicted an IRGC-QF member for conspiring to assassinate a former US National Security Advisor. Iran’s surrogate, Lebanese Hizballah, has also called for revenge against the United States for Soleimani’s death.
To bolster these efforts, China, Iran, and Russia are likely to continue engaging in transnational repression activities in the United States, undermining US laws, norms, and individuals’ rights. These adversaries have targeted individuals they perceive as threats to their legitimacy, including ethnic and religious minorities, political dissidents, and journalists. Tactics employed include physical assault, threats, harassment and defamation, rendition, and manipulation of international law enforcement personnel and processes. China and Iran are expected to be the most aggressive actors in the United States.
Iran’s regime specifically targets Iranian dissidents in the US to suppress support for potential anti-regime protests and calls for social and political reform. In early 2023, the DOJ indicted several individuals for plotting to murder a US dissident on behalf of Iran. Tehran had previously subjected the US citizen to death threats, a year-long social media campaign calling for their abduction, and the arrest of a family member in Iran.
Iranian and Chinese intelligence services have hired US-based private investigators to monitor dissidents, suggesting that US citizens may wittingly or unwittingly enable activities resulting in harassment or physical harm. Russia, in at least one instance, used a foreign national to spy on a US-based Russian dissident.
Russia, China, and Iran perceive the upcoming 2024 election season as an opportunity to conduct overt and covert influence campaigns aimed at shaping favorable US policy outcomes and undermining US stability. These efforts are expected to intensify in advance of the election.
In the face of evolving transnational threats, the United States must adopt a comprehensive and adaptive approach to safeguard its national security and democratic principles. Countering Iran’s retaliatory intent, addressing China’s transnational repression, and guarding against Russia’s election interference demand not only robust intelligence and law enforcement measures but also a commitment to protecting the rights and safety of individuals residing within US borders. As the global landscape continues to shift, staying ahead of these challenges necessitates international collaboration, technological innovation, and a steadfast dedication to democratic values.
