Erfan Fard
In recent months, the alarming expansion of the Iranian regime’s influence in Sudan has become glaringly evident. The Islamic Republic’s calculated maneuvers in Sudan threaten not only regional stability but also illustrate Tehran’s enduring agenda to establish dominance by aligning with and supporting militias and government factions predisposed to disruption. This strategic engagement is part of the Iranian regime’s larger regional aspirations, aiming to assert its influence by building alliances with groups and governments that share its ideological and strategic objectives.
From the era of Omar al-Bashir and Rafsanjani, and the tripartite relationship of Hezbollah, Al-Qaeda, and the Quds Force in Sudan until today, it can be said that this sinister triangle still has influence in Sudan. The Quds Force and Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence (MOIS) use Sudan as a firm foothold for developing terrorist relationships and establishing a position in Africa. Most terrorist groups in Africa have visible and hidden relationships with the Islamic Republic of Iran in Tehran. And this issue will be one of the threats to security and stability in Africa.
Expanding Influence and Strategic Aspirations
Iran’s involvement in Sudan is multifaceted and deeply embedded in a strategy to project power across a region already rife with conflict. Notably, Tehran has been backing the Sudanese military, which, under significant influence from Islamist elements and terrorist proxies, is feared to potentially morph into a militia group akin to Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces. This transformation is facilitated by Iran’s provision of military hardware, including advanced drones, which bolsters the Sudanese army’s capabilities, particularly amid the ongoing civil strife.
The relationship also provides Iran’s regime with critical access to the Red Sea, enhancing its ability to exert influence over a vital commercial and strategic corridor that touches several geopolitical hotspots, including Yemen and Saudi Arabia. This positioning is crucial as it allows Iran to escalate tensions with Western powers, particularly the United States, thereby expanding its foothold not just in the Middle East but also across Africa.
Iran’s strategic maneuvers in Sudan underscore its broader geopolitical objectives to establish a continuous presence along critical maritime routes. By strengthening its alliance with Sudan, Iran aims to create a new front in its regional power struggle, directly challenging Western influence and bolstering its position within global power dynamics. This intricate web of military and political alignment reveals Tehran’s calculated efforts to reshape the regional balance of power in its favor.
Renewed Ties and Regional Repercussions
Iran’s rekindling of relations with Sudan, especially after recent regional conflicts, has drawn international concern. The United States and Israel are particularly wary of these developments due to potential threats to the normalization agreements between Israel and Sudan. Such alliances could potentially facilitate arms transfers to militant groups like Hamas, further destabilizing the region and complicating efforts to disarm these groups.
Moreover, the strategic implications of these alliances extend beyond mere political alignment; they signify a deeper involvement in the military engagements within Sudan. The recent attempt by Iran to establish a naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast—though unsuccessful—underscores Tehran’s ambition to directly influence maritime security dynamics critical to global trade and regional power balances.
Proxy Wars and International Response
The situation in Sudan, exacerbated by foreign interventions, notably by Iran and the United Arab Emirates, reflects a broader pattern of regional proxy wars where external powers supply arms and support to conflicting parties. This not only fuels conflict but also leads to significant humanitarian crises. The international community, led by entities such as the United Nations and individual states like the U.S., has called for comprehensive arms embargoes and diplomatic interventions to discourage such involvement. However, these efforts have been met with limited success, as the conflict continues to draw in arms and support from these regional players.
Iran’s Training Missions and the Future of Sudan
Compounding the complexity of the situation is the recent arrival of an Iranian delegation in Sudan, tasked with training military and intelligence personnel. This move signals a deepening military cooperation intended to enhance the capabilities of the Sudanese forces using sophisticated technologies like drones and jamming devices. Such developments not only raise alarms about the escalation of the conflict within Sudan but also about the potential for greater regional instability.
This collaboration not only facilitates an increase in military operations within Sudan but also represents a significant step in the solidification of ties between Tehran and Khartoum. The training of Sudanese forces by Iranian MOIS or Quds Froce in advanced military technologies underscores the depth of the strategic partnership, aiming to transform the Sudanese military into a more formidable force capable of influencing regional dynamics significantly.
A Call for Vigilant International Diplomacy
As Sudan becomes a potential new proxy arena for Iran’s ambitions, the need for vigilant international diplomacy and stricter enforcement of arms embargoes becomes more apparent. The alignment of Tehran’s regime with disruptive forces in Sudan is a clear manifestation of its broader strategy to export its revolutionary ideals and militaristic influence. This not only challenges the sovereignty of states like Sudan but also poses a significant threat to regional peace and global security. The international community must therefore respond with a unified strategy that addresses both the symptoms and root causes of this burgeoning alliance to prevent a full-scale regional destabilization.
This response must go beyond mere reactive measures; it requires a proactive and comprehensive approach that includes diplomatic, economic, and if necessary, military components. International actors, including the United Nations, African Union, and influential nations such as the United States, European Union members, and regional powers, must collaborate closely to formulate policies that effectively counteract Iranian influence without further harming Sudan’s fragile socio-political landscape.