By Tumwesigye Anslem

India’s crude oil import landscape is shifting decisively in February 2026, with Saudi Arabia reclaiming the position of leading supplier as purchases from Russia continue to moderate under sustained geopolitical and commercial pressures.

Tanker tracking results show Saudi deliveries averaging 1 to 1.1 million barrels per day this month, the highest since late 2019 while early-month data even saw peaks briefly surpassing Russian arrivals. This uptick reflects Indian refiners’ strategic pivot toward reliable Middle Eastern grades amid U.S. diplomatic efforts to curb reliance on Russian crude, bolstered by recent bilateral trade understandings that have encouraged diversification without abrupt cutoffs.

Russian volumes to India are holding at approximately 1.1 to 1.2 million barrels per day for February, still edging out Saudi Arabia in most estimates and keeping Moscow as the nominal top supplier for the full month. Yet this marks a steep retreat from earlier highs above 2 million barrels per day, with projections indicating a further slide to 800,000–1 million barrels per day in March due to refinery turnarounds, pricing dynamics and ongoing sanctions related constraints.

The redirected Russian supply is instead flowing robustly to China, where February imports are tracking toward a record 2.07–2.08 million barrels per day (per Vortexa and Kpler assessments), capitalizing on attractive discounts that have drawn aggressive buying from independent refiners.

For India, the reorientation toward Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers promises shorter transit times, greater supply-chain predictability, and reduced exposure to volatility in Russian-origin cargoes. The change underscores a broader realignment in Asian oil markets, where geopolitical considerations, competitive pricing, and long-term energy security are reshaping traditional supplier hierarchies.