By Prof Bill Michael

Abu Dhabi is making a calculated move just days before OPEC+ convenes.

According to Bloomberg, the United Arab Emirates is offering additional volumes of its flagship Murban crude to partners in its onshore concession — a signal that supply capacity in the Gulf remains robust despite geopolitical uncertainty. The timing is not accidental.

ADNOC, which controls 60% of the onshore concession with production capacity near two million barrels per day, has offered extra cargoes to major international partners including TotalEnergies, BP, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Inpex, Zhenhua Oil, and GS Energy. Some of these companies have already placed additional barrels into the spot market, reinforcing the perception of near-term abundance.

This move comes as Saudi Arabia and Iran also accelerate exports, even while U.S.–Iran tensions continue to generate speculation about possible disruptions. Rather than tightening supply in anticipation of volatility, Gulf producers appear to be signaling confidence — and perhaps asserting market discipline.

The price response has been immediate. Murban crude has weakened relative to Brent and Dubai benchmarks due to increased availability, while Brent futures climbed to $72.61 per barrel, the highest intraday level since July 2025. The divergence highlights a market wrestling with two opposing forces: rising physical supply and persistent geopolitical risk premiums.

Historically, ADNOC has coordinated closely with OPEC+ production frameworks. However, the UAE has also steadily expanded its output capacity over the past decade, investing billions to position itself as one of the most reliable and technologically advanced producers within the alliance. Offering incremental barrels now could strengthen Abu Dhabi’s leverage ahead of negotiations, particularly if OPEC+ approves modest production increases starting in April — a step some delegates reportedly expect.

Beyond pricing mechanics, the strategic dimension matters. The UAE is reinforcing its role as a dependable energy partner for Asian and European consumers at a time when energy security remains a political priority across capitals. With global demand steady but fragile, and financial markets sensitive to policy signals, even small production adjustments carry outsized implications.

Abu Dhabi’s message is subtle but clear: capacity is available, supply chains are functioning, and the Gulf remains the stabilizing anchor of the global oil system — even as broader geopolitical tensions continue to simmer.